At least that's the word from eMarketer.
In a new study, eMarketer found that a third of ad agency executives polled are open-minded about significant spending on mobile marketing. But six out of 10 agency execs said it ain't going to happen this year.
Indeed, only 1% said they're investing heavily in mobile marketing in 2008, and none said they're definitely moving a good chunk of budget into mobile right now.
This even as the total amount of spend in mobile marketing is expected to nearly double this year - and grow 10 fold by 2011.
Why the disconnect, if you will? Depends on the audience. Though some marketers look to spend on a channel once it has become a mass medium, others use it because their target audiences use the channel.
"Urban youth, for instance, have a mobile-centric lifestyle, which explains why Sprite is moving to mobile," eMarketer senior analyst John du Pre Gauntt says.
Some of this makes sense. Brand marketers and general ad agencies are going to go with proven channels, and experiment with media like mobile. But I'm truly skeptical of the increase in spending projected for this year and through 2011.
One, because I think people are going to find that mobile's not a very interesting venue for delivering ads.
Two, because mobile's so much more powerful than that, especially when it's used as an interaction tool and response mechanism to commercial messages in other media - print, broadcast, direct, online and outdoor. A notion examined in more depth in BRANDING UNBOUND the book, and one that doesn't cost much money.
And three, because a growing number of operators are realizing that carelessly subjecting their subscribers to mobile advertising is likely to increase churn. A 2007 Pontis survey found that 70% of subscribers surveyed say mobile marketing campaigns are totally irrelevant to them, while two thirds are fed up with mobile phone spam.
According to Lorcan Burke, CEO, AdaptiveMobile, this is where the danger lies: disgruntled customers switching to a mobile provider with a more suitable mobile advertising strategy.
Time will tell how it plays out. But I think eMarketer has at least one of the equations right.
You'll want to read more, here and here.
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